Deep Dive Season 1: Nuclear Energy | Episode 6: "Science Projects Masquerading as Commercial Products" | Dr. Chris Keefer on the SMR Hype Cycle & Energy Independence Imperatives

Today's episode explores three ideas that caught my attention:

1. Some Patience Required: The nuclear industry's journey from 50-60% capacity factors in the 1970s to today's impressive 93% demonstrates that optimization of these technologies can take decades, not years. Investors expecting rapid returns from new nuclear technologies are fundamentally misaligned with the industry's intrinsic development timeline.

2. Infrastructure Economics Favor State Capital: Nuclear parallels railroads—massive upfront costs with enormous long-term societal benefits—while renewables are more like bicycles and natural gas like cars. This partially explains why state-backed projects in Asia have recently been delivering reactors at $3,000/kW in five years while some Western projects cost $14,000/kW and take a decade. Success requires coordinated national strategy, not just private capital.

3. Fusion is a Long Way Away: Despite billions in investment, fusion faces engineering challenges an order of magnitude more complex than fission (which, let’s be honest, is already pretty stinking difficult), only to ultimately produce the same product—baseload electricity. This represents a fundamental misallocation of resources when optimizing existing fission technology would yield faster results.

I explore these ideas and more with Dr. Chris Keefer, President of Canadians for Nuclear and Host of the Decouple Podcast.

Dr. Chris Keefer brings a unique blend of medical expertise and energy policy understanding as both an emergency physician in Toronto and the president of Canadians for Nuclear Energy. As host of the Decouple Podcast, he explores the science, technology, and politics of energy systems with particular focus on nuclear power's role in providing clean, reliable baseload electricity while advocating for evidence-based approaches to energy transition challenges.

During our conversation, Chris shares:

• A compelling case study comparing US vs. Chinese AP1000 reactor construction times that reveals design completion—not regulation or labor—was the primary factor in Vogtle's delays.

• Why Micro-Reactors face fundamental physics challenges that make the "diesel generator replacement" narrative deeply problematic despite its appeal to investors and remote communities.

• A framework for understanding nuclear as analogous to hydroelectricity in its economic structure, revealing why private capital struggles to finance projects with decades-long return horizons.

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What We Cover:

• 0:00 Introduction

• 02:55 The Social and Political Landscape of Nuclear Energy

• 05:41 The Bear Case for Nuclear Energy

• 08:05 Challenges of Small Modular Reactors

• 12:22 The Role of Venture Capital in Nuclear Innovation

• 19:55 Technical and Economic Challenges of Micro Reactors

• 27:45 Global Nuclear Deployment: A Necessity

• 33:37 China's Strategic Energy Moves

• 35:15 The US Nuclear Renaissance That Wasn't

• 36:53 The Future of Nuclear in the West

• 39:37 Ontario's Nuclear Leadership

• 40:41 The Vogtle Project: Lessons Learned

• 47:55 Realistic Expectations for Nuclear and Fusion

Listen now on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and YouTube.

Connect with Chris

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chris-keefer-md-166a3698/

• X: https://x.com/Dr_Keefer

• The Decouple Podcast:

  Decouple

• Canadians for Nuclear Energy: https://www.canfornuclearenergy.org/

Connect with Andrew

• Newsletter: https://thediligentobserver.substack.com

• X: https://twitter.com/AKazlow

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewkazlow/

• Book: https://angelops.pitchfact.com/

• Website: https://pitchfact.com/

Stuff We Reference

• Deep Dive Season 1 Episode 1 with Rod Adams: https://thediligentobserver.substack.com/p/deep-dive-episode-1-scale-through

• James Krellenstein: https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-krellenstein-ba80102b/

• Vogtle Part 1: The Nuclear Renaissance that Wasn’t:

  Vogtle Part 1: The Nuclear Renaissance That Wasn't

• Dylan Moon: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dylanjmoon/

• The discovery of Nuclear Fission by Lise Meitner & Otto Hahn: https://www.chemistryworld.com/features/hahn-meitner-and-the-discovery-of-nuclear-fission/3009604.article

• Deep Dive Season 1 Episode 2 with Reed Clay: https://thediligentobserver.substack.com/p/deep-dive-season-1-nuclear-energy

• IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency): https://www.iaea.org/

• Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC): https://www.nrc.gov/

• AP1000 of Westinghouse: https://westinghousenuclear.com/energy-systems/ap1000-pwr/

• GE Hitachi: https://www.gevernova.com/nuclear

• Dow Chemical: https://www.dow.com/en-us.html

• X-energy: https://x-energy.com/

• Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/

• Ontario Power Generation (OPG): https://www.opg.com/

• ITER: https://www.iter.org/

• China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC): https://en.cnnc.com.cn/

• Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022): https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/A7F4BFEF6CE7296F4C1AA1A4C9C3C105/S0002930022000690a.pdf/russia-ukraine-and-the-future-world-order.pdf

• Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant (California, USA): https://www.pge.com/en/about/pge-systems/nuclear-power.html

• Vogtle 3 & 4: https://www.nrc.gov/reactors/new-reactors/large-lwr/col/vogtle.html

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All opinions expressed are personal and may not reflect the views of the individual’s organization or of The Diligent Observer. Not investment advice.